Friday, October 9, 2009

BIG CATCH?

I think there's somebody other than Mark Sanchez who has to be breathing a big sigh of relief that the Jets got another weapon at the wide receiver position in Braylon Edwards. I can't wait to see how this acquisition helps their former (still current?) number one receiver, Jerricho Cotchery.
Cotchery has actually had a good season so far - very quiet, but productive (so quiet I didn't realize he had had some decent games). He's gone for 90, 87, 108, and 71-yard games (one touchdown) so far this season. It doesn't seem like he's been thrown to an awful lot. You might say he hasn't built up a relationship with Mark Sanchez...but I would argue that he hasn't had much of a chance.

Cotchery has been in a tough spot to this point. If you're the opposing team going up against the Jets, are you paying much attention to Cotchery, Chansi Stuckey, or David Clowney? I think you make Stuckey and Clowney and their combind 500 career receiving yards beat you, and you devote your coverage to Cotchery. I don't know if teams have been doing this, but if so, it's a wonder Cotchery has had the types of productive games he's had.

So now, Edwards will draw some of that coverage. Cotchery should be more available as a target. And I expect big things from him the rest of the season.

ANALYSIS ON EDWARDS: Wide receiver for the Jets has been a position that has felt exposed not just in this young season but the past few seasons. Laveranues Coles had a good career with the Jets, but he's just not that big play kind of player. Braylon Edwards could be the biggest-play receiver the Jets have had since Keyshawn Johnson.

Of course, the key word is could.

Edwards has had well-documented off-field issues. And, for that matter, his on-field drops issues have also been well-documented.

I always want to give guys the benefit of the doubt that they'll respond positively to a fresh start (though if Edwards loved the Cleveland nightlife I can only imagine he'll have a field day in New York), so I'm going to do so with Edwards.

The key, though, is productivity. If he drops important passes and costs the Jets games, forget about it. If his presence elevates Mark Sanchez to the next level as an NFL quarterback...I'll forget he ever played in Cleveland, let alone that it was a disappointing start to a promising career.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

MISERY LOVES COMPANY

Dear Tigers Fans,

I know how you feel. Your team is filling the record books for all the wrong reasons. Just a couple of weeks ago you had World Series visions dancing in your head. You were on the cover of Sports Illustrated. You were feeling good.

And then, though it really took place over the course of a month, it felt like everything came crashing down at once. Suddenly another team is celebrating, and you're going home.
I know you don't want to hear this right now...but I know how you feel.

I am a Mets fan.

It's horrible. Sitting pretty at the beginning of September, then watching another team play in October.

But at least it didn't happen to you two years in a row.

The losses in April that seemed so insignificant...but meant so much by game 162.

But at least, when you needed to win to stay alive on the final day of the season, you won.

And then, with everything on the line in game 163, you fought back to take the lead a couple of times after blowing leads of your own...even coming from behind once.

That's the kind of heart the Mets never showed with their season(s) on the line.

So, Tigers fans, yours may be the first team in baseball history to blow a three game lead with four games to play.

But right now I can assure you it could be worse.

You could be a Mets fan.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen this post-season. Perhaps you picked up on that when I predicted so surely that Minnesota would easily dispatch of the Tigers in the AL Central playoff. No such luck there. (Obviously, I got the team right, but not the route to victory.)

Ask me an hour ago who was the best team in the National League and I would have said hands-down Saint Louis. Then I had myself a look at the standings and realized the Cardinals finished with the worst record of all of the National League playoff teams. I don't know when that happened...I would have thought the Dodgers' recent slide easily put them ahead of only Colorado...but no. So now I'm not sure I even like the Cardinals.

In the American League I may be trying to convince myself the Yankees will lose, but I'm just not feeling as confident about the Yankees as everyone else is. Perhaps they run away with everything...but I feel like there are teams that can beat them.

So I have no idea going into this write-up who's going to win what. But I'll have it worked out in the next few paragraphs.

Boston versus Los Angeles
This much I feel good about. The Angels will not sweep the Red Sox, and if it goes to a fifth game, the Angels' psyches will not be able to handle it. So the Red Sox would win a game 5. To prevent either scenario from happening, I'm picking the Angels in four.

Do I have any rationale other than the law of averages? No. But the Angels have been playing very good baseball all season, they have to have figured out the Red Sox over the years, and I want them to win. I really do. It makes me so sad to think about the Nick Adenhart situation, and how that could have just ripped apart their season. Instead, they're here. And I'd like to see them continue the run all the way to the World Series.

Minnesota versus New York
Any other team and I'd make a case for whoever was going up against the Yankees. I don't think the Yankees are going to win the World Series, but I don't think they'll bow out in the first round.

I think there's an interesting little internal situation going on with Jorge Posada coming out so vocally about the fact that he wasn't chosen as A.J. Burnett's personal catcher...but here's a news flash - Jorge, you're a terrible catcher. OK, I guess that's not relevant, but I had to take that shot at Posada.

Anyways, Yankees in three.


Colorado versus Philadelphia
I want to think the Rockies can go on a run similar to the one that resulted in their only World Series appearance, in 2007, but I don't think it happens this year. First of all, quite possibly their best pitcher, Jorge De La Rosa, won't pitch in the series. Secondly, I feel like the Phillies won't abandon their title defense so soon.

It seems like the big guys on the Phillies - Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard - have all had subpar seasons. And still the Phillies finished ahead of almost everyone in the league. You have to think they'll start hitting in the post-season...and that's bad news for the Rockies.

Phillies in three.

Cardinals versus Dodgers
This is a very interesting matchup - really, a month ago it could have been the matchup to decide who represented the National League in the World Series. Now I think it's a matchup of two teams who are fading.

The question is, who's fading faster? I think it's the Dodgers - they don't seem to be getting anything from their key players...at least the Cardinals have Albert Pujols and a whole lotta arms, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.

That'll keep St. Louis fighting...for at least another round. Cardinals in four.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

LIKE PUTTING A BAND-AID ON A BROKEN LEG

It's like making sure to turn off the oven while the house is burning down.

The Mets Monday fired first base coach Luis Alicea, while re-assigning bench coach Sandy Alomar and third base coach Razor Shines.

The good news here is that this creates some possible openings for the likes of, oh, I don't know, Hall of Famer Gary Carter. First base coach, then when Jerry Manuel gets off to a slow start in 2010, pull a Colorado Rockies, fire the manager, and put Gary Carter in to lead the Mets to a playoff berth.

Of course, they won't.

Hitting coach Howard Johnson will keep his job. So will pitching coach Dan Warthen and bullpen coach Randy Niemann.

The HoJo news leads me to the most misleading stat ever - the Mets hit .270 this year and tied the Dodgers for highest batting average in the National League. That got them a whole lot of nothing.

Some of these quotes about the firings are making me mad. I feel like the blame should fall on the manager, not the coaches. While Jeff Wilpon says Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel are keeping their jobs, they are on notice, I guess, for another year, because the Mets 'demand' and 'expect' better.

Manuel, meanwhile, says, "The traffic that we had on the bases probably to a lot of degree was not properly managed as well as we would've liked to have seen." You know who the blame falls on for that? I blame the manager. Because that's not the stuff a first base coach should be blamed for. I'm not seeing players thrown out at second stretching singles into doubles as much as I'm seeing players making terrible baserunning decisions. Those are the types of things that need to be taught and taught and taught during spring training, not during the regular season (not to mention the fact that ballplayers shouldn't need tremendous coaching at the professional level on the basepaths...should they?).

So I feel like Jerry Manuel is putting the blame that should fall on him onto his coaches.

And I feel like the Mets are just making sure to shut the door right before the building is demolished.

TWINS-TIGERS: I promised a playoff pick for Tuesday, here it is (I'll have the real playoff picks tomorrow) - I think the Twins will smoke the Tigers Tuesday night. I don't even think it will be close. And I wish the Mets had sent off Shea the way the Twins are sending off the Metrodome.

Monday, October 5, 2009

SAINTS 24, JETS 10

Last week, after a Jets win, I chose to focus on the negatives. This week, after a Jets loss, I'm going to focus on the positives.

But the first thing that needs to be said is that New Orleans is very good. Not because they beat my team...but because they made the Jets look so bad in doing it. Even when the Jets were only down one score I didn't feel good about their chances because I didn't think the Jets could get the two scores they would need to win against New Orleans the way they were playing.

I knew about the New Orleans offense (which I now am even more impressed by, seeing their receivers catch EVERYTHING Drew Brees threw their way), but that defense was very good. I missed the boat on the Saints in my pre-season rankings - they're going to be a force in the NFC all year.

Now, onto the Jets. This is not a season-killer by any means. This was a loss to a legit team (a non-conference team, at that), and the Jets are still 3-1 with a big division game coming up next week. It's not like they're barely clinging to 3-1 like, say, the Bengals, who eked out a 3-1 record (rather than a 2-1-1 record) in overtime versus Cleveland.

My reaction to this loss is kind of like in the pre-season, when Mark Sanchez needed to struggle a bit to learn from his mistakes. I look at this game as a huge learning experience. He made rookie mistakes in this game - which he hasn't really been making yet. The interception that Darren Sharper returned 99 yards for a touchdown was a poorly thrown pass. Doesn't that ball have to go to the back corner of the end zone, especially when Sanchez's receiver is double-covered? He threw it where two Saints had a better chance of catching the ball than his receiver. And Sanchez simply held onto the ball too long in the end zone on the fumble that was recovered for a touchdown. Two rookie mistakes. I bet they don't happen again anytime soon.

The other good news was that even though the Jets couldn't get anything going offensively, their defense still gave them a chance. The Jets were in this game the entire time, because their defense kept them in it. And this wasn't a team with a bad offense - this was the Saints, who have an excellent offense. So that's a huge positive.

The Jets still don't seem to have things going on offense. I feel like they haven't put it all together yet....and they're still 3-1. So I think there's still some upside in a season that so far has been mostly up.

Next week is huge for the Jets - a division game, with a chance to get to 4-1 (which sounds a whole lot better than 3-1 coming off this loss). It's also big because the Patriots won again, beating a less-than-impressive Ravens team (their defense did not look as imposing as it had in previous weeks...and it also looked undisciplined in certain instances). So the Jets are now tied for first in the division, rather than alone in first. It's time for them to start proving their 3-0 start wasn't a fluke.

TELLING MOMENT: Apropos of nothing, other than the fact that I noticed it, I think I put my finger on why exactly Tony Romo and the Cowboys don't win important games. After Brandon Marshall made an impressive move to give the Broncos (ugh!) the lead inside of two minutes left in the game, the camera cut to Romo on the bench. Peyton Manning or Tom Brady would have been fired up, looking at the clock and thinking, "1:46 to take my team down the field and tie this baby up!"

Romo was waving his hand in disgust at the Cowboys defense. He actually did lead a good drive...but came up a couple of yards short of the end zone. And I think he'll always come up short in big situations.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

SUNDAY PAPER

This is not a live blog.

At first glance, that may not seem like news. To understand why it's notable, you would have had to have been reading my work for at least the past couple of years. (You can catch up here and here, if you're so inclined.)

Those past couple of years have featured some marathon days of baseball and football watching, requiring some fancy television maneuvering on my part and some luck in the television schedule (the Jets on network television for my rabbit-eared TV, with the Mets on the baseball package on the cable TV).

The days with the above set-up have ended in utter disappointment, making me wonder which is worse - that one day of disappointment, capping half a month of terrible play by the Mets where they miss the playoffs on the last day of the season (not much worse the second year than the first, to be quite honest), or elimination from any chance at contention by June. I would say each leaves a bad taste in your mouth, with the latter bringing back bad memories of my high school years to go along with the disappointment. The only good news here is that early on I knew this Mets season wouldn't come down to missing the playoffs on the last day of the season.

So much, though, conspired against me having my usual "Last Sunday of the Baseball Season" set-up. To wit:

1) The Mets are terrible.

2) The Mets are early, the Jets are a 4 o'clock start. So I don't have to worry about the two teams going opposite one another.

3) I wouldn't be able to put the Jets on network TV anyway because the Patriots are the 1 o'clock CBS game and CBS wouldn't have the 4 o'clock game on local TV.

4) My rabbit-eared TV doesn't work anymore thanks to the government's move back in June to digitalize it all. (Was that what happened? I don't even remember how that all worked.)

5) I now have two mobile children, as opposed to the one mobile and one infant a year ago.

And so I prepare for another October of watching teams other than the Mets play in the post-season with just a regular Sunday blog. Let's just hope there's not a rematch in the World Series.

**So far having no DirecTV is not having a tremendous impact on my enjoyment of the football season. The first two weeks of the season were on local TV (though I went to the Meadowlands for the week 2 game), and last week I had a great time with Dave in Brighton at a local establishment watching the Jets. I should have no trouble finding Jets-Saints somewhere this afternoon, and my wife has been wonderful about helping me get out to see these games. She rescheduled her afternoon tutoring so that I could go out at 4.

**I can't start picking against the Jets now...why should I? Defense gets the nod over offense - and this should be a really entertaining game. I'll say Jets 21, Saints 20

**My underdogs were pretty terrible last week. I missed picking against the Lions and Bengals, and picking Tampa and Buffalo (no points for the Bills keeping it close late). In addition to the Jets this week, I'm liking a lot of other road teams - Baltimore in New England is getting 2-and-a-half (the Ravens have played so much better than the Patriots this season), Tampa Bay getting six-and-a-half in Washington (the Redskins have looked that bad), San Diego getting six-and-a-half in Pittsburgh (just seems like a lot, considering the Steelers have yet to look that good), and Green Bay getting three-and-a-half in Minnesota (and Favre getting a big target on his back). Seems to me like I'm picking too many road teams this week (I have quite a few road favorites as well), but there are a lot of bad teams playing at home, I guess.

**I think I'm rooting for the Twins to overtake the Tigers, just to see what happens with the Metrodome being occupied Monday night by football when there might have to be a playoff game there. I have no reason to hate Minnesota...I don't love the Tigers, although there's a feel-good story in there with the state of things in Detroit. But the larger issue here is that Detroit is in the midst of a pretty significant collapse when they had a chance to wrap things up. Watching the Mets go through that the past couple of years, all you can think about is how difficult it is to blow a late-season lead like that - not only does everything have to go wrong for the team in the lead, but everything has to go right for the chasing team. Same thing with what's going on out west in the NL, even though both the Dodgers and Rockies have clinched playoff spots. The Rockies were fifteen-and-a-half games out at one point! That's an incredible turnaround. It just seems so hard to blow a lead like that...yet, the Dodgers watched their lead evaporate until they had to fight for the division in the final weekend. Too bad neither of these races will erase the Mets of 2007 and 2008 from their ignominious standing.

**Oh, ignominious and the Mets reminds me of Omar Minaya. Not to beat a dead horse, but with the Blue Jays firing J. P. Ricciardi, it makes me think there's now someone available for the Mets who actually knows a thing or two about baseball. I know Ricciardi pretty much botched any deal for Roy Halladay, but I bet he'd work well with the Mets. Too bad we'll never find out just how well.

**Stay with me this week. After a Jets recap on Monday I'll have baseball playoff picks for Tuesday.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

Long-time readers of my work know that when I watch the World Series or the Super Bowl, I don't like seeing re-matches.

Super Bowl XXVII between Buffalo and Dallas was fine...Super Bowl XXVIII between the same two teams was a waste of a year.

And I'm not just talking back-to-back rematches. 2004 Red Sox-Cardinals? Happened in 1946. Again, wasting my time.

Needless to say, it's time for me to start working out some scenarios.
The Yankees have played nearly everyone. The only thing that would make a 2009 World Series appearance by them worthwhile would be a matchup with the Colorado Rockies.

Those Rockies could play anyone except the Red Sox...and while many want to see the Sox play Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers, Red Sox-Dodgers has already happened. A long time ago...but it's been done. Same with Sox-Phillies.

Both the Twins and Tigers would be OK to come out of the Central, as long as they didn't play their NL Central counterparts, the Cardinals. I really would like the Cardinals to get upset, because they've played a lot of teams over the years.

The best bet to come out of the AL? The Angels. Their only World Series appearance came against the Giants, who are not playoff-bound. Even if the NL-favorite Cardinals come out of that League, it would be a new matchup.

And that would give my busy mind one less thing to worry about.