PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

Long-time readers of my work know that when I watch the World Series or the Super Bowl, I don't like seeing re-matches.

Super Bowl XXVII between Buffalo and Dallas was fine...Super Bowl XXVIII between the same two teams was a waste of a year.

And I'm not just talking back-to-back rematches. 2004 Red Sox-Cardinals? Happened in 1946. Again, wasting my time.

Needless to say, it's time for me to start working out some scenarios.
The Yankees have played nearly everyone. The only thing that would make a 2009 World Series appearance by them worthwhile would be a matchup with the Colorado Rockies.

Those Rockies could play anyone except the Red Sox...and while many want to see the Sox play Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers, Red Sox-Dodgers has already happened. A long time ago...but it's been done. Same with Sox-Phillies.

Both the Twins and Tigers would be OK to come out of the Central, as long as they didn't play their NL Central counterparts, the Cardinals. I really would like the Cardinals to get upset, because they've played a lot of teams over the years.

The best bet to come out of the AL? The Angels. Their only World Series appearance came against the Giants, who are not playoff-bound. Even if the NL-favorite Cardinals come out of that League, it would be a new matchup.

And that would give my busy mind one less thing to worry about.

EARLY INDICATIONS

Three games in, your team can only be 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, or 0-3. Four possibilities, but the record could be terribly misleading. I'm here to set the....um, record....straight.

0-3 (...and going nowhere)

St. Louis, Kansas City, Cleveland, Miami, Tampa Bay - all of these teams have shown nothing this season. Quarterbacks are the key - which is the surprise with Kansas City, considering Matt Cassel's success last year. St. Louis has an injured Marc Bulger...again. Cleveland might win a few games when Eric Mangini makes up his mind about a quarterback to stick with, but Miami suffered a huge setback when Chad Pennington got hurt. Tampa Bay's last hope is a quarterback change.

0-3 (...not quite cooked yet)

Carolina, Tennessee - Carolina showed signs of life Monday night, but even then couldn't get a win. They might fight their way back to 8-8 or so, but they certainly won't be in the playoffs, as I predicted at the beginning of the year. (Though the '200 Miles From the Citi' Southern Bureau had Carolina pegged this year. Should have consulted them before putting out my picks.) Tennessee played well against the Jets after the first quarter, but they need to play well now for 13 straight full games to earn back some respect.

1-2 (...and they mean it)

Detroit, Oakland, Seattle, Jacksonville, Washington - I really wanted Washington to play well this year, but they haven't shown anything. Detroit has nothing to play for now that they have a win under their belt.

1-2 (...but we'll still be a force to be reckoned with)

Pittsburgh, Arizona, Houston, Buffalo - Buffalo and Houston could be in their own category - bad teams that will play you tough this year. They'll hurt somebody's season down the stretch. I fully expect last year's Super Bowl teams to right themselves and make it back to the playoffs.

2-1 (...but don't be fooled, we're not really that good)

Cincinnati - I know they could easily be 3-0 right now, but I'm not buying into them. I don't know how they beat Pittsburgh, but their winning ways won't last.

2-1 (...and on the way up)

New England, San Diego, Atlanta, San Francisco, Green Bay, Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia - Best crop of teams in any grouping, including the 3-0's. These teams could all be in the playoffs...and San Francisco's presence reminds me that I may regret saying I expect Arizona to rebound from their 1-2 start and make the post-season.

3-0 (...mostly with smoke and mirrors)

Denver, Denver, Denver, Denver, Denver - Ugh. How is this team 3-0? Anyone want to tell you momentum means nothing from week to week in the NFL, you point to this team. They lucked into a win in Week 1 and have ridden that wave. I'll be disgusted if they keep this up. Luckily for me, they won't.

(Due to the fact I wanted to emphasize Denver, I'm slipping Minnesota's presence to down here, as a sub-headline. Let's not forget Brett Favre's huge fade last year. Yes, the Vikings have Adrian Peterson, unlike the Jets, but Favre won't be making last-second touchdown throws all season, and the Vikings will lose key games because of that.)

3-0 (...and here to stay)

New Orleans, Baltimore, Indianapolis, New York Giants, New York Jets - I know, this is where I lose credibility...but you tell me that Jets' defense won't keep them in games and win them a few the rest of the season. Same with Baltimore, which is now putting up points as well. New Orleans and Indianapolis are the opposite, winning with offense (and the Colts just know how to win). The Giants still aren't impressing me, but they're winning, and they look convincing doing it. Color me convinced.

DUCKS UPDATE: By a hair, the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs knocked the Long Island Ducks out of the playoffs. After Long Island battled back from an 0-2 series deficit, they rallied for two runs in the bottom of the 9th in Game 5 to cut a 7-3 lead to 7-5, but a strikeout with the winning run at the plate ended Hall of Famer Gary Carter's season. Next stop, the majors?

OH CHAD

The good news, I guess, is that Chad Pennington could be in line for a record third Comeback Player of the Year Award in 2010.

But there's got to be serious doubt that Pennington will be able to come back at all from another season-ending shoulder injury suffered Sunday in San Diego.

The reports are that Pennington has a torn capsule in his throwing shoulder, the same shoulder he had surgery on in 2004 and 2005. The same reports say he is out the rest of this season. I'm guessing the next step, though I haven't heard anything yet, is that the rest of his career is in jeopardy.

For those of you who are not familiar with my past, you need to know that I think the world of Chad Pennington. So much so that last year he had me rooting for the Dolphins (I HATE the Dolphins) over the Jets so that he could make the playoffs again. I know he couldn't throw the deep ball, and I know he didn't play the greatest games of his career in the playoffs, but he was a winner with the Jets. He just couldn't stay healthy.

And that is still a problem.

This latest injury seems a bit much. I'm no expert, but when your career (a career which is already characterized by a weak arm) rests on your throwing shoulder, and that shoulder has already suffered three pretty serious traumas, I would think that would end said career. And I would hate to see it happen...but I would also hate to see Chad Pennington unable to do simple tasks like lift a fork to his mouth because he ruined his shoulder playing football.

My dad and I talk about Pennington often. He likes to say that one day Pennington will win a Super Bowl. I like to agree, because he is such a smart ballplayer, a great leader, and someone you want to see have that kind of success. He has all the traits that would make him a great coach after his playing days are over.

I want to think maybe he'll still get that Super Bowl win. Unfortunately, after this latest injury, it might have to be on the sidelines as a coach rather than on the field as a player.

JETS 24, TITANS 17

Another great win by the Jets against another very good opponent. They're 3-0. Almost more importantly, they're 3 conference wins, including 1 division win, in a season that is sure to come down to some sort of tiebreaker.

So I'm feeling good about the Jets....for the most part.

Instead of really celebrating the third win, though, I want to spend a bit of time looking at a couple of the Jets' flaws...because I'm sure other teams are starting to notice.

1) With a lead late, the Jets seem more than willing to let their defense run out the clock rather than the offense. A normal team leading by a touchdown with 9 minutes or so left in the game might milk the clock and try to limit the other team's possessions. The Jets don't seem to care about giving the ball back quickly and putting their defense back on the field. I understand the idea that it's their stronger unit, but at some point that unit is going to be tired, and the end of the game is where it's going to show the most. I'm going to start to get a little uncomfortable with opponents getting 3 or 4 chances to tie the game late in the game, as the Patriots and Titans have now had in consecutive weeks.

2) The offense hasn't exactly been lighting things up. If Tom Brady had connected on a few passes last week and the Titans hadn't played a terrible opening 10 minutes on Sunday, the Jets could easily be 1-2. They're 3-0, which is great, but Mark Sanchez can only be effective if the Jets have a running game...and they had no such thing on Sunday. It was a weird game for Tennessee - they showed why they are 0-3 in those first 10 minutes, but after that they showed flashes of the team that opened last year 10-0...and the Jets couldn't do much against that latter version. So I'm sure there's a book being written on Mark Sanchez, and the first chapter deals with stopping the run and putting some pressure on him to make throws. He looked the worst this week of his small three-game sample.

3) Thomas Jones is not playing well. Don't be fooled by the numbers Jones put up in that first game against Houston. Remember, he only scored two touchdowns because he spelled Leon Washington at the goal line and then ran all over a tired defense in fourth quarter garbage time. After that it was 14 carries for 54 yards against the Patriots and 14 carries for 20 yards against Tennessee. Yes, numbers 2 and 3 here go hand in hand. And Thomas Jones needs to help set that running game tone...and if he doesn't do it soon, it might be all Leon Washington all the time.

Those are the big issues I see with the Jets. Mostly it's been positive - they're winning, which comes ahead of anything. And they've won these three games without the suspended Calvin Pace, so they will only get stronger on defense. And they've already benefitted once from a Buffalo near-upset - playing New England after the Bills almost beat them. Now they get New Orleans next week after they struggled most of their game against Buffalo. So thanks again, Bills, for helping show the Jets the way. I have a feeling, though, that Drew Brees will present the Jets with their biggest challenge against an opposing quarterback so far this season.

MORE GOOD NEWS: Hall of Famer Gary Carter's Long Island Ducks will play a deciding fifth game Tuesday night in their playoff series after winning Sunday night to tie the series at 2. All the credit to the manager.

SUNDAY PAPER

I'll admit, I was less than pleased all last week when the Jets talked and talked leading up to their game with the Patriots.

The truth is, when they do things like that, it makes them look even worse when they get beat.

But the fact that they were able to back up all that talk and win the game makes me kind of happy they did it.

I think I like a team with some swagger.

And I think I like that it starts with the coach.

This is certainly not the type of thing that would have happened under Eric Mangini. A player who said anything under Mangini would face a fine, I'm sure...or worse.

I suppose it could have happened when Herm Edwards was at the helm, but it didn't really seem to. That was the kind of team that let Herm do the talking and they just went out and played. And while it was fun to listen to Edwards most of the time, the team was never really what you'd call dominant. More of a by-the-skin-of-their-teeth team.

Enter Rex Ryan. He started the talking in the middle of the off-season, first targeting Bill Belichick (which is tremendously overblown, incidentally - tell me something he said that has been wrong. Of course he's not going to worship Belichick - he's out to beat him. He just said what others keep to themselves.), but don't forget that when the Jets play the Dolphins, Channing Crowder says he has a score to settle with the Jets coach dating back to an off-season war of words.

The team picked up on the chatter in Week 2, and I think I'm a little disappointed that it hasn't continued into Week 3.

Well it has, kind of. Bart Scott took to the airwaves this week to call out Randy Moss, who belittled some of the Jets' defensive performance. And the target wasn't Scott specifically - he was backing up his teammates.

Listen, I know the Jets are just 2-0. I know it's not like they are a threat to win the Super Bowl...yet. (I was talking to a Patriots friend of mine this week after the Jets-Pats game and he said, "I wouldn't get too excited about your team yet." I had to respond, "I'm a Jets fan. You don't have to tell me that.") But you have to get a little excited at the atmosphere around the team Rex Ryan has created.

They believe they can win. They'll talk about it and they'll back it up. Most importantly, they'll back each other up on and off the field.

There's a lot to like - and believe in - about that.

**All of the talk around Boston is who the Red Sox are going to start in Game 1 of the ALDS...not an 'if' but a 'when'. I know they're very close to clinching...but after what I've seen with the Mets the past couple of years it gives me pause to hear people talking about the playoffs as a sure thing when it's not locked up yet. It's like when the Mets were in the playoffs commercials MLB was airing last year through the summer. That turned embarrassing come late September. And then you watch Jon Lester take a line drive off the knee and you think, 'Maybe everyone should keep their mouth shut.' Or at least stop talking about the ALCS versus the Yankees and only focus on an ALDS.

**You may remember two weeks ago I (slightly accidentally) gave you the Bills getting big points against the Patriots. I forgot to pick an underdog last Sunday, but if I had I like to think I would have gone with the Cardinals to outright win getting points in Jacksonville (I had them and felt great about them in my picks pool). But I won't let another "would have" situation go by. This week, I notice there are quite a few home underdogs, which are always hard to pick against. I do not like the Lions or Rams, both getting points, nor do I like the Bengals or the Seahawks. I think all of those teams lose and fail to cover at home. I do like the Bucs to at least cover against the Giants and the Bills to at least cover against the Saints. I'm not sure either team wins, though. And then finally, I can't believe the Broncos are underdogs in Oakland. Is there any way they lose to the Raiders? I don't think either team is very good, and I have a hard time seeing Denver getting to 3-0, but I think they win again on Sunday.

**That reminds me - I think it's time to start figuring out who's for real and who's not some time this week I'll write about the legit teams with winning records (like the Falcons) and the frauds (Denver). Also, the hard-luck losing teams (like the Titans) and the flat-out bad teams (like the Rams).

**I know you're dying to know a little more about the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, opponent of Hall of Famer Gary Carter's Long Island Ducks in the Atlantic League playoffs. In Game 1 of their series, the Ducks were beaten 1-0 by former major league pitchers John Halama and Mac Suzuki (the closer). The manager is Butch Hobson, which I'm sure resonates with the many Red Sox fans who read this blog.

**I was able to listen to the last couple of innings of Game 3 of the series on WNYG streaming over the internet and it was pretty excellent quality, all things considered. Surprised to hear that Gary Carter also coaches third base, but I guess it makes sense at that level. I guess I always assumed Buddy Harrelson would man third for Carter like he did for the 1980's Mets teams. Anyway, the Ducks pulled out an 8th inning rally to win Game 3 and stave off elimination in the best-of-five series. They trail the series 2 games to 1.

**Update: Forgot to make a Jets pick in my original posting...The Jets and Titans always play each other tight (in today's case, incidentally, it'll be Titans-Oilers - one of the AFL anniversary games, with the Jets as the Titans). I say Jets 23, Titans 20.

GIVE THE KID A CHANCE

Dear New York Mets,

As another disappointing season comes to a close, I'd like to make a pitch for an opportunity to turn the franchise around.

I know as an organization you say you are committed to the losing ways of Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel. But I know that it's not too late to make a change.

You can have a man who has Hall of Fame player credentials. He knows how to play the game of baseball. He has done nothing but win since he began his managerial career. And I'm pretty confident that if you pick up the phone, this person would leap at the opportunity to manage the Mets.

His name is Gary Carter.
Carter's Long Island Ducks clinched the second-half title in the Liberty Division of the Atlantic League. Once again a Carter-led team is storming into the post-season. (The post-season, you may remember, is what happens after the regular season ends, when teams play for the championship. Your current leadership hasn't been able to accomplish that feat in three years...and the team has been there only once in the past decade.)

Here's a brief overview of Carter's managerial resume:

Gulf Coast Mets, 2005: 37-16 (0-2 Postseason)

St. Lucie Mets, 2006: 40-30 1st half, 37-32 2nd half (5-0 Postseason, championship)

Orange County Flyers, 2008: 28-15 1st half, 26-22 2nd half (6-4 Postseason, championship)

Long Island Ducks, 2009: 37-33 1st half, 37-33 2nd half (tbd)

It's time someone took a chance on Carter at the major league level. It might as well be the team he led to a world championship as a player.

I don't know why no one has taken this chance yet. My only guess is that Carter is not well-liked around baseball...because from the reading I've done over the years it seems like he was not very well-liked as a player. But that's by other players. You know what the fans thought of him? We loved him. So New Yorkers would come to the park, I'm sure. Especially when he starts making the Mets a winning ballclub again.

Because he will make them a winning ballclub. You argue that he has only handled young players in the minors? Well, guess what? The veteran approach hasn't quite succeeded with the Mets. Time to build up a young core...and let Carter lead them.

It won't be overnight success with Carter. But it'll be worth waiting for, I promise.

Don't give me the excuse that Jerry Manuel hasn't had his full roster since April and he's dealt with all of these injuries. I saw the Mets in April, at full capacity, and they were not going anywhere. I bet a Gary Carter-led team doesn't tolerate guys waltzing into home when they should be sliding and guys making countless poor baserunning errors. And Carter's enthusiasm probably wouldn't hurt a team that lacks a certain fire.

Again, I don't know why no one has hired him yet at a high-minor league or major league level. But it won't be long until the secret's out. The man can manage. And right now, he could be the next manager of the New York Mets.

If you wait too long, you might watch him win a championship at this level with another team.

Sincerely,

A Mets fan

WHAT'S UP WITH TOM BRADY?

OK Jets fans...let's cool it with the "Brady Sucks" chants.

Tom Brady does not suck. Tom Brady is just playing below the significant bar he has set for himself to this point in his career. I know, it's much too wordy to chant at a game. But it's more true than "Brady Sucks".

At the very least, Brady sucks right now. The question is, why?

Here are the facts:

Game 1: 39-53 for 378 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Game 2: 23-47 for 216 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Going deeper than the facts, Brady only had as many yards against Buffalo as he did because they didn't run the ball and he completed short passes. And if it wasn't for the final five minutes of that game he would have shown no life at all.

Against the Jets, he should have gotten a win. All he had to do was complete one pass at any of five or six key moments in the game - and he overthrew or threw behind his receiver each time.

I'm hearing that the Jets' pressure was affecting his timing and that every throw was made a step sooner than he would have liked. But I don't buy it. Because there were times he was throwing to the sidelines when his receivers were going long, or vice versa. He was throwing over guys' heads. To be honest, I didn't think the Jets' pressure in Week 2 was all that great. He had plenty of time to let things unfold most of the game.

My wife was quick to a theory - "Remember he had the shoulder injury in the pre-season?" I do remember, and it's certainly possible that his shoulder is bothering him...many a lesser quarterback suffered through such injuries and never came back (Ken O'Brien anyone?). And of course, he's coming off major knee surgery. So he still may come around as he gets his legs under him.

But I'm not so sure I'm buying the injury thing either. Is it because he's hurt that Brady takes his sweet time coming on and off the field? Casually coming up to the line and letting delay of game penalties rack up? I don't really think so.

To sum up what I'm noticing I need to give you some background. Even as a Jets fan I've always liked Tom Brady. He was hard not to like. He always had an answer for the reporters, he played the game hard, he seemed like a nice guy.

The Brady I'm watching on the field right now looks like a punk.

He looks like he's slinking on and off the field. Really, he does. Watch him. He doesn't look like he's hustling. I know it's hard to tell sometimes with football players with all the padding and helmets and stuff...but he doesn't really look like he cares.

Then there was the interview he blew off after the Buffalo game. Tom Brady doesn't do that. He stops and answers the questions, or at least makes an effort to hear the reporter ask the question. He doesn't give an on-the-run "I can't hear anything you're saying." At least he doesn't do it when it's live TV and it's ESPN. Is it an off-the-field thing that's bothering him and made him wary of a reporter's on-the-spot question? He and his supermodel wife are expecting a baby, and then there was a lawsuit publicized Tuesday against their bodyguards for gunshots at the wedding. The problem here is that Tom Brady doesn't bring that type of stuff with him onto the field.

I know it's silly that I sound so concerned. As a Jets fan, part of me is enjoying watching this - it's been a long nine years. But the football fan in me misses watching a professional go about his job.

And it also makes me think how lucky the Jets would be if Mark Sanchez turns into the type of player I expect Tom Brady to be...on and off the field.