THE CASE FOR THE PHILLIES

There aren't many Yankees fans I see on a day-to-day basis here in Massachusetts. Thus, I haven't been talking much to anyone who has an opinion on the Yankees' 3-man rotation.

So I'll offer mine - it's totally allowing the Phillies back into this World Series. And it might just cause the Yankees to blow their 3-games-to-1 lead.

(I know...if you rely on this space as your only source of sports news - and who doesn't? - you might be surprised to know there even was a World Series this year. But I've been keeping an eye on things. Not a close eye, mind you. But an eye nonetheless.)

Despite his 4-0 career record on short rest, I feel that starting A.J. Burnett on three days' rest was really a roll of the dice. He's inconsistent on regular rest, let alone when you blow up his routine. And I realize I have 20/20 hindsight...so let's start looking ahead.

I don't know that I can bet against Andy Pettitte in a series-clincher...but you also won't catch me betting on him on short rest at this stage of his career. The short rest probably won't affect C.C. Sabathia tremendously...but there are other factors at play if this series goes 7 - more on that in a minute. Let's look at Game 6.

Sure, Andy Pettitte could pitch well...but I think he will be out-performed by Pedro Martinez in Game 6. Pedro is all about drama...the big stage. Fired up in front of the Yankee Stadium crowd - combined with the fact that he's coming off a loss there less than a week ago. Throw in the fact that he can leave his career on the field if he has to, and he's going to be lights-out in Game 6. Think Sunday Night Baseball against the Mets - we're talking six-hit shutout type of stuff.

Which brings us to Game 7. The amount of pitches he's thrown on short rest after short rest could catch up to Sabathia...but until I see him fail in a big game I can't count him out. And Cole Hamels has done nothing but fail in the big games this year - but he's shown us in the past that he can show up...and I think he has something to prove after he was called out by teammate Brett Myers after some controversial comments he made.

I don't think the Game 7 starters factor into the decision at all though - I think it comes down to what had been the Phillies' weakness all along, but in Game 7 becomes their strength. They suddenly have all hands on deck out of the bullpen, including Cliff Lee. Sure, it's after only 2-days rest...but watch that guy pitch and tell me he won't be the first off the bench if need be. And Charlie Manuel, I'm sure, will have to think long and hard about passing up Lee for someone like Brad Lidge.

The Yankees will have Mariano Rivera and their solid relievers...but not their starters. And all of this doesn't even take into account that I think it's going to be Ryan Howard breaking out and turning himself into World Series MVP.

Yep. The Phillies are going to take the two games at Yankee Stadium and complete an improbable comeback. This World Series is just getting interesting. Phillies in 7.

IT'S LIKE 1950 ALL OVER AGAIN

Here's the deal, so that you never have to read me go through it again - from now on, whenever I write about this, I'll just link back to this page (the day of Game 1 of the 2009 World Series) so that you can refresh your memory if need be.

The 2009 baseball season is dead to me.

If the Mets aren't in the World Series, I start rooting for matchups that have never happened before. So the Angels would have been a great fit in the 2009 World Series - they have only been to the World Series once before, and they didn't play the Phillies.

The Yankees? They've been, many times...and they've already played the Phillies.

So this season, in my crazy, muddled mind, becomes a waste. (Not like I didn't see that coming after watching the Mets play in April and May.)

The past couple of years had been great - the Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies each checked a team off of their 'played in the World Series' list (yes, there is one) - but there have been some wasted years recently, too. So many, in fact, that I've had to begin making exceptions to my rules, like:

1) "At least they haven't played in my lifetime." This applied to the Red Sox-Cardinals in 2004, Tigers-Cardinals in 2006, and this year with the Phils and Yanks.

and

2) "Well, maybe at least the team that lost before will win this time." That worked in 2004. And I guess under this clause I'd be rooting for the Phillies this year.

But it's just not the same as a new matchup.

This all applies to the Super Bowl, too (it's in the back of my mind with the NBA and Stanley Cup Finals, too, but I just don't apply myself to those sports in the same way).

As such, it makes the back-to-back Bills-Cowboys Super Bowls tremendous wastes - not only did the same team win twice, but both were in my lifetime. Ditto for Yankees-Braves.

I suppose if the Mets made the World Series, I'd waive this idiosyncrasy...but it's gotten so bad that if the Mets played the Red Sox, Yankees, A's, or Orioles, part of me would feel like I wasted a season. That's not the case in 2009, though - this year there's no doubt the season feels wasted.

And so another baseball season comes to a close for me - before the World Series even gets underway.

SUNDAY PAPER

I was really looking forward to a Game 6 of the ALCS Saturday night - the night I could actually stay up to watch a game. Now I need to either set myself back entirely for the week by staying up late for a Sunday night game, or miss the late innings.

I really have a lot riding on the outcome, too. There are a few reasons I want the Angels to pull this series out, none of which have anything to do with rooting against the Yankees just because.

One thing is, I'd like to see the Angels win Game 6 so that there's a Game 7. That would be exciting. Secondly, it has been a long haul for the Angels this season. As I've mentioned before, they have the best story this post-season - no one would have blamed them if they had mailed their season in after the early-season Nick Adenhart tragedy. But they've come this far, it would be a shame if they fell short of the World Series.

Finally, though, I don't want it to be a Phillies-Yankees World Series. There are two reasons for this. One is that this is a repeat World Series, and I would feel like we wasted the year if there wasn't a new matchup in the World Series. Secondly, this is the baseball equivalent of the Super Bowl a couple of years ago when the Giants beat the Patriots.

The Yankees are the Giants - the team that but for the grace of God I could have chosen as my own, resulting in me celebrating multiple championships in my lifetime in either sport rather than the one (1986 Mets) I've lived through.

The Phillies are the Patriots - the rival team that is enjoying all of its success at the expense of my team. I have to watch them celebrate championships while my team watches from home...and it becomes more and more clear that this situation bothers me more than it ever will them.

So there's a no-win situation for me with Phillies-Yankees. Let's Go Angels.

*A few articles this week called the Mets "winners" in the Bernie Madoff situation, because they ended up 'making' money on the Ponzi scheme. I think that's just tasteless - no one is a winner in that situation, and it shouldn't be said no matter how clever it makes a headline. Second to that, the Mets will literally not end up winners - won't they have to pay back those millions of dollars? What I took from those stories is that the Madoff scandal may affect the Mets for years down the road.

*I feel like I need to weigh in on this ESPN controversy this week. I don't know why I'm always surprised when these things, like the Steve Phillips situation, come out - I worked in the TV news business for a number of years and there must be something about the egos involved, but there's a lot of low-lifes in the industry. And the people at ESPN have turned me off for a number of years - I never watch SportsCenter anymore - I get my sports news in quick chunks on ESPNEWS and then move on. So I shouldn't be surprised when these types of revelations come out - yet I always am. I guess I expect the best of people. Now, though, I may have to take the opposite approach - and it's going to be hard for any of the ESPN-affiliated folks to earn my respect.

*Today is the 23rd anniversary of Game 6 of the 1986 World Series. It's funny - I think this merits another blog another day, maybe during the World Series, but I have some very distinct memories from the 1986 post-season (and season)...Game 6 is not one of them. (I was 8 years old.) I'm not sure why - maybe because I've seen it so many times on tape since....but I feel like of all the games this is one I would have seen much if not all of - it was a Saturday night, I remember being up for other games....I don't know. Just no memory of it as a live event. I will re-visit this conversation.

*Thanks to the reality check offered by the Jets these past few weeks, I no longer feel like I have to make an argument for the Jets to win every week. I still think they beat Oakland in Oakland, but we all know what a tough place that has been for the Jets historically. I'll say Jets 13, Raiders 10, but I would not be the least bit surprised if Oakland wins. (The Eagles probably helped the Jets out last week by laying an egg in Oakland - I just figure it's less likely for the Raiders to win two weeks in a row.)

*In other pick news, I'm big on the road teams this week. (And not to brag or anything, but I'm currently second place overall in my pool...I win a lot of the games that I don't write about here, believe it or not.) I like Chicago, Atlanta, Arizona, San Francisco, and Minnesota - all getting points on the road, and I like Green Bay, San Diego, Indy, and the Patriots (the 'road' team in England) all giving points on the road. One road team I do not like, you may remember from my rambling earlier in the week, is the Saints. Watch out for the Dolphins upset.

*For those of you reading 200 Miles From the Citi who may not know this, my new blog location (not so new anymore, I guess) is through a sort of parent group - http://www.worldsportsblogs.com/ - you may want to start coming to my site through there. There's some other stuff worth reading there on a variety of topics.

UNACCEPTABLE UMPIRING

This post-season has been a disgrace as far as the umpiring in Major League Baseball.

Generally, I know, umpires do a good job. They only stand out when something goes wrong.

Well, I don't want my umpires to stand out - ever. And especially not during the playoffs. But that's exactly what's happened far too much this year.

There were terrible calls in the Yankees-Twins series, one a possible game-changer. There were terrible calls in the Red Sox-Angels series. And the capper on an awful post-season for MLB umps came Tuesday night in Game 4 of the Yankees-Angels series.

There was a tag on a pickoff where the runner was clearly out. There was an appeal play to third where the runner was not out. Both calls went the wrong way (and I strongly suspect the latter was to make up for the former).
Then, the most unbelievable of all the calls. With 1 out, Angels catcher Jeff Mathis tagged two Yankees, clear as day, right in front of the umpire, for a definite double play. The umpire called one of the Yankees out and for some reason gave the other runner the base.

Little leaguers watching the game (if they could make it that late - to be honest, there could have been more bad calls but I fell asleep after this one) were probably screaming at the TV that the umpire blew it - that's how elementary the call was.

I don't want instant replay over plays like that one. I want the umpire to get it right. I want the umpire to admit his mistake and change his call - it doesn't take instant replay to convince someone that what he saw and what he called were incompatible. Not to mention there are five other umpires on the field who know what the right call is and could make it.

I want what the SEC did on Wednesday - they didn't like some of the calls coming from one of their officiating crew (some fishy-sounding calls, incidentally), so they suspended the crew. I want the crew calling this Yankees-Angels series suspended. Bring up the backups, the umpires who didn't quite make the League Championship Series cut....or better yet, bring in the ones that just missed making the post-season....to replace them.

Because to this point, none of the calls has had a disastrous impact on a game or a series. But at this rate, one will.

I GUESS I LOVE LA

First of all, I want to take this opportunity to officially throw the 200 Miles From The Citi endorsement behind the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Not only are they my only hope for a non-wasted baseball year (read: no repeat matchup in the World Series), I really like them. Especially this year - they're my feel-good story. So go Angels!

That said, time for my predictions...it's kind of an L.A. story:

ALCS - Angels vs. Yankees

I don't have much solid evidence to back up my rooting for the Angels here...other than the fact that I'm still not 100% buying the Yankees this year.

If the Minnesota Twins could run the bases without looking like the New York Mets, they could have pushed the Yankees to four games...possibly even a fifth...but they just couldn't figure out New York this whole season.

The Angels, on the other hand, match up well against the Yankees.

What's to stop them from running all over Jorge Posada and taking extra bases? Certainly not Jorge Posada...maybe Jose Molina.

The Angels have the team of destiny thing going right now...and I'm not saying it will be easy....and I don't really love Brian Fuentes closing out games against the Yankees....but I'm going to take a flyer here and say Angels in seven.

NLCS - Phillies vs. Dodgers
Here's what's happening in the National League - things are settling back into a somewhat normal order.

The Dodgers played that first round series against St. Louis like the team they were early in the season - the best team in the National League.

The Phillies started to get the major contributions from the heart of their order that Phillies fans have been waiting for all season.

I think both of those things will continue in the NLCS.

The one thing that was more flukey in the NLDS was the thing that has plagued the Phillies all season long - closing out ballgames. That strength for that four-game series will disappear in this series - and that will be the difference.

It's going to be LA-LA in the World Series - Dodgers in six.

SUNDAY PAPER

This happens to me every October.

I start to get real day-dreamy as I watch the playoffs, wondering what it would be like if my team was in the playoffs every year, battling it out for a chance at a world championship.

There's just so much mediocrity in my teams it's hard to wrap your head around it. The Phillies, thanks to the Mets' collapses, have won three straight division titles. In my lifetime (I'm 31) the Mets have won three division titles.

There's no such thing as "get 'em next year" in my sports life. Only once (once!) have the Mets made the post-season in back-to-back years. (1999-2000) There were plenty of 'should haves' (1987, 2007, 2008, close calls in 1998 and 2001), but that doesn't mean anything.

It sometime boggles my mind to think about teams like the Red Sox and Yankees and the decades they have had. What would I do in that situation? Would I appreciate just how awesome that is? Or would I take it for granted?

Of course, this extends to football too. The Jets have done nothing in my lifetime. Sure, there's the occasional foray deep into the playoffs, and the occasional back-to-back playoff seasons (and at least lately there have been playoff appearances - for a while during my childhood I didn't think I'd see even that)...but there still hasn't been a sniff of a Super Bowl. (Or at least, those sniffs are few and far between - 1998, 2004...that's about it.)

I'm hopelessly optimistic though. I still dream, and every season's beginning to me is a chance for my team to win it all. It only feeds this (dis)illusion when the Jets get off to 3-1 starts and look good doing it.

So as October marches on and I watch teams that aren't the Mets carry out other people's dreams, I think about what may be some day for the Mets....some day that will challenge 1986 as the highlight of my sports life.

And all the while I'll be thinking about what could be this year for the Jets...and how I'd react if it ever actually happened.

**As a sidebar, in case you're wondering, I do root for the New York Rangers, and I did root for the Rangers in 1994, but hockey just isn't the same for me as baseball and football. And my college (Boston University) is the defending national champion in hockey, but I don't see that the same way, I guess because my affiliation with them only goes back to 1996...it still feels too new. The way they won, though, was super exciting for me...so again, it only makes me think how happy I would feel if the Mets or Jets ever won another championship.

**This is one of the times during the year when living in the greater Boston area is ultra-frustrating. Because of their provincial sports view, there is no real local outlet for national radio. So come playoff time, you can't catch a baseball game on the radio (except, of course, the local Red Sox broadcast). So Wednesday and Thursday I drove home from school without being able to listen to the playoff games. Drives me nuts. Am I wrong to say this only happens in Boston? Do you get the playoffs on the radio in your area? (Update...I did get the Saturday night game on the local station. So that means people around here would rather listen to the afternoon and weeknight blather instead of a playoff game during the week.)

**Some good stuff to come out of New York and Miami this week - I guess Rex Ryan and Channing Crowder made their peace after an off-season trading barbs. Crowder is right when he says people can let their emotions get the best of them and run their mouths off, but it shouldn't happen with a coach. Ryan is right when he says everything that comes out of his mouth is just excitement because he really does believe he has a good team. The other part of it was that Crowder said he curses out everyone on the field....especially Leon Washington. I guess the players hate each other from as far back as their college days when Washington was at Florida State and Crowder was at Florida. That'll be an interesting part of the game to watch tomorrow night.

**While we're on the subject of Monday Night Football, I'll make my Jets pick. This is such an important game for the Jets, because it's a game they have no business losing. If they lose, they're nothing more than the Buffalo Bills, who played teams like the Patriots and Saints tough before getting smoked last week by Miami. If the Jets are for real, they'll beat Miami Monday night. If they lose, they're no different than Jets teams of the past that have gotten off to fast starts. Of course, I've seen only evidence that makes me believe the former over the latter, so I say Jets 31, Dolphins 10. Please let them prove me right.

**My worst week of picking games so far this season came last week. I hit on only a couple of underdogs (Cleveland and Tampa), and lost the rest. So this week, at the risk of you actually reading this and thinking I know what I'm doing, I'll just observe some of the spreads, and reason out loud why I'm picking what I'm picking. I feel like, even though the Giants have been whooping these poorer teams, 15-and-a-half is a lot of points for Oakland. Especially with Manning not 100%. Maybe like a 13-0 Giants win this week. I don't know. They'll probably prove me wrong to the tune of 70-3. I like Atlanta in San Francisco a lot, with the Falcons getting 2-and-a-half - I feel like they'll take out their aggression over losing in New England on the 49ers. And I'm going with Washington getting 3-and-a-half in Carolina, with the idea that they have looked less bad than the Panthers...though don't get me wrong - both have looked pretty bad.

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen this post-season. Perhaps you picked up on that when I predicted so surely that Minnesota would easily dispatch of the Tigers in the AL Central playoff. No such luck there. (Obviously, I got the team right, but not the route to victory.)

Ask me an hour ago who was the best team in the National League and I would have said hands-down Saint Louis. Then I had myself a look at the standings and realized the Cardinals finished with the worst record of all of the National League playoff teams. I don't know when that happened...I would have thought the Dodgers' recent slide easily put them ahead of only Colorado...but no. So now I'm not sure I even like the Cardinals.

In the American League I may be trying to convince myself the Yankees will lose, but I'm just not feeling as confident about the Yankees as everyone else is. Perhaps they run away with everything...but I feel like there are teams that can beat them.

So I have no idea going into this write-up who's going to win what. But I'll have it worked out in the next few paragraphs.

Boston versus Los Angeles
This much I feel good about. The Angels will not sweep the Red Sox, and if it goes to a fifth game, the Angels' psyches will not be able to handle it. So the Red Sox would win a game 5. To prevent either scenario from happening, I'm picking the Angels in four.

Do I have any rationale other than the law of averages? No. But the Angels have been playing very good baseball all season, they have to have figured out the Red Sox over the years, and I want them to win. I really do. It makes me so sad to think about the Nick Adenhart situation, and how that could have just ripped apart their season. Instead, they're here. And I'd like to see them continue the run all the way to the World Series.

Minnesota versus New York
Any other team and I'd make a case for whoever was going up against the Yankees. I don't think the Yankees are going to win the World Series, but I don't think they'll bow out in the first round.

I think there's an interesting little internal situation going on with Jorge Posada coming out so vocally about the fact that he wasn't chosen as A.J. Burnett's personal catcher...but here's a news flash - Jorge, you're a terrible catcher. OK, I guess that's not relevant, but I had to take that shot at Posada.

Anyways, Yankees in three.


Colorado versus Philadelphia
I want to think the Rockies can go on a run similar to the one that resulted in their only World Series appearance, in 2007, but I don't think it happens this year. First of all, quite possibly their best pitcher, Jorge De La Rosa, won't pitch in the series. Secondly, I feel like the Phillies won't abandon their title defense so soon.

It seems like the big guys on the Phillies - Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard - have all had subpar seasons. And still the Phillies finished ahead of almost everyone in the league. You have to think they'll start hitting in the post-season...and that's bad news for the Rockies.

Phillies in three.

Cardinals versus Dodgers
This is a very interesting matchup - really, a month ago it could have been the matchup to decide who represented the National League in the World Series. Now I think it's a matchup of two teams who are fading.

The question is, who's fading faster? I think it's the Dodgers - they don't seem to be getting anything from their key players...at least the Cardinals have Albert Pujols and a whole lotta arms, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.

That'll keep St. Louis fighting...for at least another round. Cardinals in four.

PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

Long-time readers of my work know that when I watch the World Series or the Super Bowl, I don't like seeing re-matches.

Super Bowl XXVII between Buffalo and Dallas was fine...Super Bowl XXVIII between the same two teams was a waste of a year.

And I'm not just talking back-to-back rematches. 2004 Red Sox-Cardinals? Happened in 1946. Again, wasting my time.

Needless to say, it's time for me to start working out some scenarios.
The Yankees have played nearly everyone. The only thing that would make a 2009 World Series appearance by them worthwhile would be a matchup with the Colorado Rockies.

Those Rockies could play anyone except the Red Sox...and while many want to see the Sox play Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers, Red Sox-Dodgers has already happened. A long time ago...but it's been done. Same with Sox-Phillies.

Both the Twins and Tigers would be OK to come out of the Central, as long as they didn't play their NL Central counterparts, the Cardinals. I really would like the Cardinals to get upset, because they've played a lot of teams over the years.

The best bet to come out of the AL? The Angels. Their only World Series appearance came against the Giants, who are not playoff-bound. Even if the NL-favorite Cardinals come out of that League, it would be a new matchup.

And that would give my busy mind one less thing to worry about.