BILLS 16, JETS 13 OT

It took almost an entire overtime period for the Jets to drop to 3-3 and officially be considered a .500 team.

But if you watched the game (which in one of my most desperate acts as a football fan I drove to New York to do), you saw early on that the Jets really are no better than a .500 team.

You may remember in the preseason that I said Mark Sanchez's fast start (48-yard touchdown on his first throw) was probably the worst thing that could happen to him. I also said the humbling game he had against the Ravens might turn out to be the best thing that could have happened to him. I forgot about that lesson as the Jets jumped out to a 3-0 start this year. And I take back what I said about his first preseason game - the 3-0 start to his career is THE worst thing that could have happened to Mark Sanchez.

What today's game showed me is that the Jets are far closer to the team that went 0-3 the past few weeks instead of the team that started the season 3-0. And Mark Sanchez, at this stage in his career, is more likely to throw 5 interceptions than throw, oh, I don't know....6 touchdowns.

The Bills are terrible. That assessment did not change after watching them play today. But the Jets are not too much better.

Because of their upcoming schedule, the Jets may continue to fool people into thinking they are better than they really are. They'll beat up on some teams that are worse than they are...and, as they showed today, they'll probably lose to a couple of those teams as well.

It's all part of the learning experience with a rookie quarterback...and a rookie coach. It's just unfortunate for them that they made people forget what comes along with rookies in those spots with such a fast start.

And unfortunate for me that I was one of the people who got caught up in the ride.

SUNDAY PAPER

Ryan Madson's bases loaded walk to give up the go-ahead run in Game 2 of the NLCS reminded me that it was 10 years ago that Kenny Rogers did same for the Mets in the NLCS.

The stakes were higher in Rogers' case - it was the bottom of the 11th of Game 6, and the run not only won the game but also clinched the series for the Braves. I can't imagine a more anti-climactic event than a series-ending bases loaded walk.

The bases loaded walk has been the bane of my existence this past decade or so - it just drives me nuts every time I see it - throw a strike! So with tomorrow being the 10-year anniversary of Kenny Rogers' becoming my number one baseball enemy...I turn to prose for therapy:



The Bases Loaded Walk
There are fewer things I do not like
With three men on, Count: three and two,
Than when the pitcher can't throw a strike
And "Ball Four," says the man in blue.

It seems like such a simple thing
He's done so many times before
To throw a strike, induce cheering
Rather than a walk and a free score.

I suppose if it would help my team
I wouldn't mind as much
But lately every time, it seems,
My team fails in the clutch.

A pitcher's role within the game
Is to help his team, not hurt.
He has no one but himself to blame
When his pitches hit the dirt.

With the bases loaded walk, you know,
The defense has no play,
Can't aid the pitcher in his show,
And it's hard to win that way.

It's annoying, that walk, to say the least,
When the bases are fully jammed...
It's a quiet killer, a silent beast...
I'd almost rather a grand slam.

*Hall of Famer Gary Carter has yet another new gig - Carter will manage the Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish. That's a Division II college team. Carter, once he got no offers from anything at the major league level, decided he'd rather work close to home in Florida - apparently he became a grandfather for the first time in August and felt like he missed out not being there. Lots of talk that people in baseball are still upset with him for 'campaigning' for Willie Randolph's job in 2008. I think it's time for people to get over themselves and admit that he rubs them the wrong way for more than that one thing.....and watch out for a Division II championship very shortly for PBAU.

*More former Mets are back in the New York fold. Tim Tuefel is the seeming 'chosen one' within the organization - he's expected to be named manager of AA Binghamton. Mookie Wilson is going to be back in the organization in some capacity, and Wally Backman will be managing at the single-A level. Wish Carter was in this mix...

*Jose Reyes had surgery this week to clean scar tissue from the torn hamstring tendon behind his right knee. He's expected to be ready for spring training. I suppose of all the players whose injuries affected the 2009 season, Reyes was the most costly. I'm so torn, though - clearly the Mets are a more exciting team when Reyes is healthy and is a threat, but are they that much better with him than without him? I used to think, if healthy, he was the most important player on the team....I view him now, if healthy, as the most valuable trading chip.

*Jets can't lose to the Bills today. Just can't. It has to be a blowout, too, none of this piddly sit on a lead stuff. The Bills are terrible. Jets 30, Bills 14.

*I like Houston to cover in Cincinnati (they're getting five-and-a-half), but Cincinnati to win again...I don't care that Jacksonville is playing the Rams - they shouldn't be giving 9-and-a-half to anyone - St. Louis keeps it close...Arizona will beat Seattle outright - let alone take 2-and-a-half points from a favored Seattle...and I'm not learning my lesson from the New England game, I guess - I'm taking the Ravens as road 'dogs again, getting 2-and-a-half in Minnesota.

A CAUTIONARY TALE

There are all sorts of Jets seasons I could throw at you as evidence that I've been through this type of thing before.

A hot start followed by a disappointing collapse.

The Jets have written that book through the years...and I've devoured it cover-to-cover.

But 2009 seems different.

I've mentioned this before - I go into every new season optimistic. So those other years were extra disappointing to me when I went in thinking good things, had my expectations met, then exceeded, then shot down.

This season, I went in with my enthusiasm tempered. I accepted that it was a year of adjustment, with a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach and coming off a lackluster year a year ago.

Then they earned my enthusiasm...they earned my optimism...starting out the year 3-0, then losing a tough game at New Orleans.

Like so many of these similar seasons of the past, this year might have taken a sharp turn towards disaster against the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football (my brain has just recovered enough from the late night to reason this all out, incidentally).

But still, I get the feeling that 2009 is different.

Sunday brings the Buffalo Bills to town...and they are a disaster. They couldn't score against Cleveland, which by all rights should not have won a game this season. They got blown out by the same Miami Dolphins the Jets came within seven seconds of beating...or at least going to OT with. They are in a bad spot right now.

The old Jets...they lose this game in disappointing fashion.

The 2009 Jets - they should win this game, if they show the same kind of aggressive play they opened the season with.

And then the Jets are sitting at 4-2 with some winnable games to be played. Things could be looking up...

But, again, I'm cautious.

I GUESS I LOVE LA

First of all, I want to take this opportunity to officially throw the 200 Miles From The Citi endorsement behind the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Not only are they my only hope for a non-wasted baseball year (read: no repeat matchup in the World Series), I really like them. Especially this year - they're my feel-good story. So go Angels!

That said, time for my predictions...it's kind of an L.A. story:

ALCS - Angels vs. Yankees

I don't have much solid evidence to back up my rooting for the Angels here...other than the fact that I'm still not 100% buying the Yankees this year.

If the Minnesota Twins could run the bases without looking like the New York Mets, they could have pushed the Yankees to four games...possibly even a fifth...but they just couldn't figure out New York this whole season.

The Angels, on the other hand, match up well against the Yankees.

What's to stop them from running all over Jorge Posada and taking extra bases? Certainly not Jorge Posada...maybe Jose Molina.

The Angels have the team of destiny thing going right now...and I'm not saying it will be easy....and I don't really love Brian Fuentes closing out games against the Yankees....but I'm going to take a flyer here and say Angels in seven.

NLCS - Phillies vs. Dodgers
Here's what's happening in the National League - things are settling back into a somewhat normal order.

The Dodgers played that first round series against St. Louis like the team they were early in the season - the best team in the National League.

The Phillies started to get the major contributions from the heart of their order that Phillies fans have been waiting for all season.

I think both of those things will continue in the NLCS.

The one thing that was more flukey in the NLDS was the thing that has plagued the Phillies all season long - closing out ballgames. That strength for that four-game series will disappear in this series - and that will be the difference.

It's going to be LA-LA in the World Series - Dodgers in six.

DOLPHINS 31, JETS 27

Well, that was unexpected.

I didn't think the Jets would lose to the Dolphins...but the Dolphins played a really great game.

They ran the Jets' defense ragged all game - a very tough defense looked tired all game.

Chad Henne looked good, but mostly because he had the time to make things happen. It's the same thing that allowed Miami to win last year - they have a very good offensive line.

It was nice to see Braylon Edwards make such a significant contribution right away. Hopefully it's because of a chip on his shoulder, and hopefully that chip stays all year.

The bottom line is the Jets' strategy, which we've seen all year, in which they don't turn Mark Sanchez loose at key moments when they're leading, came back to bite them tonight. We saw it when they started trailing - he can be trusted to throw the ball. He can help protect a lead...it doesn't have to be only the defense.

I think I'm getting old - Monday Night Football is too late for me these days.

At first I was surprised when I saw the schedule and saw that the Jets play the Dolphins again so quickly - just a few weeks from now. Now I'm really glad they get them back so soon...there's some hatred back in this Jets-Dolphins rivalry.

I know I'm glad Chad Pennington isn't playing - it makes it easier to hate the Dolphins. I want the Jets to get back on the field against them tomorrow.

I hope the Jets players feel the same way.

MIND WANDERINGS

A Sunday on which the Jets don't play allows my mind to wander. This is either a good thing for you because my mind touches on lots of topics and maybe one or two will catch your interest, or a bad thing for you because you have to read them all. Here we go:

*I didn't really think the Angels would sweep and when they trailed late I actually thought, "Here we go again with the Angels unable to close out the Sox." I hope they win it all.

*The bad thing about an Angels sweep is Don Orsillo is probably done calling games. I hope the nation got a taste of what New England has been able to hear for almost a decade now - just how good of a play-by-play man he is. He has also improved as the years have gone on to get to where he is now - he had a rough first year (replacing a local favorite in Sean McDonough), and I remember his second game in the bigs was a no-hitter (I can't remember if it was Nomo or Lowe...I think Nomo in Baltimore) and he was so nervous it affected his call of the game. I also need to make clear that my liking of Orsillo is heavily influenced by how nice he was to me when we met a couple of times in 2003, when I was working in TV news, and he was showing up for our morning show to be an analyst. He could have been a jerk like 90% of the TV people I know...and I wouldn't really have blamed him because things did not go his way that post-season...but he was awesome. I have a soft spot for him ever since.

*I also think Ron Darling has grown by leaps and bounds as an analyst. I thought he was very dry in his year with Washington (I think his first year in the booth), but he's come a long way since joining the Mets. The nation is getting a taste of him in the Yankees-Twins series (and in the one-game playoff, too - he must have wanted to slap Chip Caray in the head after his blown call of the lineout to left-double play which Caray called a base hit). Anyway, I can't say the same for Darling about him as a person as I did about Orsillo. I don't get the feeling he's as great a person. I read Darling's book, and he really comes off as not very nice, and unapologetic about it. If you're not coming across nicely in your own book, you're probably not very nice. Second time in recent years I've been entirely turned off of someone by their own book - Mike Greenberg was the other.

*I guess we have to start believing the Broncos are for real now, huh?

*I want Rex Ryan to celebrate on the field after wins like Josh McDaniels did on Sunday.

*Boy, did the Dodgers look like a different team this post-season. Well, not really a different team, but they looked like the team that started the season, not the one that ended it.

*I think the New York Giants are going to get a heavy dose of reality next week against the Saints - the first legit team they've played all season (and I'm including the Cowboys in that...what a joke they are). Should be a good game though.

*I know I've been talking a lot lately about Hall of Famer Gary Carter and his managing prospects, but I haven't mentioned a huge player in the upcoming managerial openings - Bobby Valentine. First of all, I don't really know who's looking for a manager at this point...but Bobby V.'ll bring some excitement to wherever that is.

*Just like I feel tonight's game with Miami is a game the Jets can't lose...there are others coming up on the 2009 schedule. Among them is the Raiders. The Giants made the Raiders look silly, but the Jets have had their struggles against Oakland...and they have to play out west. The old Jets would lose that game, or win by a field goal. I'm curious how these Jets will play.

*I'm ready for some football.

SUNDAY PAPER

This happens to me every October.

I start to get real day-dreamy as I watch the playoffs, wondering what it would be like if my team was in the playoffs every year, battling it out for a chance at a world championship.

There's just so much mediocrity in my teams it's hard to wrap your head around it. The Phillies, thanks to the Mets' collapses, have won three straight division titles. In my lifetime (I'm 31) the Mets have won three division titles.

There's no such thing as "get 'em next year" in my sports life. Only once (once!) have the Mets made the post-season in back-to-back years. (1999-2000) There were plenty of 'should haves' (1987, 2007, 2008, close calls in 1998 and 2001), but that doesn't mean anything.

It sometime boggles my mind to think about teams like the Red Sox and Yankees and the decades they have had. What would I do in that situation? Would I appreciate just how awesome that is? Or would I take it for granted?

Of course, this extends to football too. The Jets have done nothing in my lifetime. Sure, there's the occasional foray deep into the playoffs, and the occasional back-to-back playoff seasons (and at least lately there have been playoff appearances - for a while during my childhood I didn't think I'd see even that)...but there still hasn't been a sniff of a Super Bowl. (Or at least, those sniffs are few and far between - 1998, 2004...that's about it.)

I'm hopelessly optimistic though. I still dream, and every season's beginning to me is a chance for my team to win it all. It only feeds this (dis)illusion when the Jets get off to 3-1 starts and look good doing it.

So as October marches on and I watch teams that aren't the Mets carry out other people's dreams, I think about what may be some day for the Mets....some day that will challenge 1986 as the highlight of my sports life.

And all the while I'll be thinking about what could be this year for the Jets...and how I'd react if it ever actually happened.

**As a sidebar, in case you're wondering, I do root for the New York Rangers, and I did root for the Rangers in 1994, but hockey just isn't the same for me as baseball and football. And my college (Boston University) is the defending national champion in hockey, but I don't see that the same way, I guess because my affiliation with them only goes back to 1996...it still feels too new. The way they won, though, was super exciting for me...so again, it only makes me think how happy I would feel if the Mets or Jets ever won another championship.

**This is one of the times during the year when living in the greater Boston area is ultra-frustrating. Because of their provincial sports view, there is no real local outlet for national radio. So come playoff time, you can't catch a baseball game on the radio (except, of course, the local Red Sox broadcast). So Wednesday and Thursday I drove home from school without being able to listen to the playoff games. Drives me nuts. Am I wrong to say this only happens in Boston? Do you get the playoffs on the radio in your area? (Update...I did get the Saturday night game on the local station. So that means people around here would rather listen to the afternoon and weeknight blather instead of a playoff game during the week.)

**Some good stuff to come out of New York and Miami this week - I guess Rex Ryan and Channing Crowder made their peace after an off-season trading barbs. Crowder is right when he says people can let their emotions get the best of them and run their mouths off, but it shouldn't happen with a coach. Ryan is right when he says everything that comes out of his mouth is just excitement because he really does believe he has a good team. The other part of it was that Crowder said he curses out everyone on the field....especially Leon Washington. I guess the players hate each other from as far back as their college days when Washington was at Florida State and Crowder was at Florida. That'll be an interesting part of the game to watch tomorrow night.

**While we're on the subject of Monday Night Football, I'll make my Jets pick. This is such an important game for the Jets, because it's a game they have no business losing. If they lose, they're nothing more than the Buffalo Bills, who played teams like the Patriots and Saints tough before getting smoked last week by Miami. If the Jets are for real, they'll beat Miami Monday night. If they lose, they're no different than Jets teams of the past that have gotten off to fast starts. Of course, I've seen only evidence that makes me believe the former over the latter, so I say Jets 31, Dolphins 10. Please let them prove me right.

**My worst week of picking games so far this season came last week. I hit on only a couple of underdogs (Cleveland and Tampa), and lost the rest. So this week, at the risk of you actually reading this and thinking I know what I'm doing, I'll just observe some of the spreads, and reason out loud why I'm picking what I'm picking. I feel like, even though the Giants have been whooping these poorer teams, 15-and-a-half is a lot of points for Oakland. Especially with Manning not 100%. Maybe like a 13-0 Giants win this week. I don't know. They'll probably prove me wrong to the tune of 70-3. I like Atlanta in San Francisco a lot, with the Falcons getting 2-and-a-half - I feel like they'll take out their aggression over losing in New England on the 49ers. And I'm going with Washington getting 3-and-a-half in Carolina, with the idea that they have looked less bad than the Panthers...though don't get me wrong - both have looked pretty bad.